Can the Premier League New Boys Survive the drop?

17 08 2012

Coming up from the n-Power Championship are: the winners Reading, second-placed Southampton and play-off winners West Ham United. Reading amazed the footballing community to surge up the Championship fairly unnoticed for much of the season, before storming the last stretch to win the league with a game to spare. Southampton achieved back-to-back promotions, recording the best home record in the division and boasting the league’s top-scorer Rickie Lambert, who also won the Championship Player of the Year Award, pipping team-mate Adam Lallana to the prize. West Ham secured an immediate return to the Premier League, as expected, but not with the ease expected, having to win the play-offs after finishing third.

However, irrelevant of league finishes last season and reputations, are the Premier League’s new boys fit for survival?

Reading

Winning 17 of their games in the second-half of the season warrants mention alone: but perhaps doesn’t tell the full story. Although Brian McDermott won the Manager of the Year Award for his achievements his style of play is more aptly described as to suit the environment, rather than sustainable. If Reading are to survive, adaptability will play a key role.

Last season, against lesser opposition, Reading were able to soak up vast amounts of pressure and defend for much of the game knowing they had the speed and ability to break on the counter and finish attacks in a clinical fashion. In Hal Robson-Kanu, but Jimmy Kebe especially, Reading had rapid outlets. In Jason Roberts, in the second-half of the season, they had an intelligent target man that knew the Championship inside out, first with West Brom and then with Wigan – both of those experiences, too, resulted in promotion from the second-tier of English football. Furthermore they had Adam Le Fondre in the striking ranks, who had grown an addiction to scoring from the bench.

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However, in the Premier League, Reading simply will not be able to defend for such long periods and experience minimal damage. When Reading beat Southampton 3-1 at St. Mary’s Stadium with just a handful of games left, the scoreline told a different story to the match. Reading had ridden their luck and not the type of luck one creates itself: Saints fired 19 shots at Adam Federici, Reading hit just four on target scoring three; Southampton had 60% of the possession and forced five more corners out of their opponents than their opponents did them; yet Reading somehow won. They had the ability to play with their backs against the wall, knowing they had individual brilliance within the team that didn’t need to be asked twice. Nabil Hassan accurately described that, perhaps, title-deciding game: “Reading’s victory was secured courtesy of some fine goalkeeping from Adam Federici and two moments of magic from winger Jimmy Kebe.”

Although Reading have signed seven players already for their Premier League campaign, three of which were playing in the Premier League just last season, and their new wealthy backers, the prediction is the Berkshire club will struggle this season and an immediate return to the Championship is a distinct possibility.

Prediction: 20th

Southampton

Although some areas still need addressing if Southampton are going to have a team able to fight the drop – namely central defence and an injection of speed in the final third – their signings thus far have been indicative of an exciting season with attractive displays of football.

Having already been in possession of Rickie Lambert, the Championship’s Player of the Year and top scorer, Nigel Adkins went out and purchased Jay Rodriguez for £7m, breaking the club record transfer fee, and signing the Championship’s 5th top scorer with 15. This added to the January acquisition of Billy Sharp, who finished third in the scoring ranks.

In addition to their marquee signing thus far Saints have stuck to their apparent transfer policy of domestic players plying their trade in the Football League, adding League Two ‘keeper Paulo Gazzaniga from Gillingham and defender Nathaniel Clyne from Crystal Palace, who was also in the Championship Team of the Year alongside four other Saints players: Kelvin Davis, Adam Lallana, Rickie Lambert and Jay Rodriguez. It is believed Saints have tabled a bid for another player from the famed XI – Matt Phillips of Blackpool.

Despite making just four signings, the fourth being Steven Davis from Rangers, Saints do have the ability to stay up – further reinforcements will simply reinforce the point itself. Who they sign between now and September will define just how higher up the bottom ten they can push themselves. If the week’s story is to be believed, Saints look set to push as far away from “relegation candidates” as possible, supposedly on the brink of signing Gaston Ramirez for £12m from Bologna. The attacking midfielder has already turned down Spurs and is quoted telling the Italian press that, “[Southampton] believe in me in every way, I will be essential and above all they are going to grow. Southampton is a newly promoted team in the English top-flight but they will become a big team in years to come.”

At current, ambition is what is talking at St. Mary’s, but it need’s promise to materialise. Signings so far have hinted, but more is needed to confirm such promise. If the promise can be shown the ambition becomes a possibility.

Prediction: 13th

West Ham

Sam Allardyce has moved quickly in order to strengthen what was arguably a Premier League quality side already. Having kept hold of key players such as Carlton Cole and Mark Noble when they were relegated from the Premier League, Allardyce has further built on the side he inherited whilst securing an immediate return to the top flight.

With Robert Green leaving The Hammers on a free for QPR, Allardyce replaced the England international with a former employee, Bolton’s Jussi Jasskelainen, as well as signing Stephen Henderson from Portsmouth and Raphael Spiegel from Swiss side Grasshoppers. The defence has been bolstered by the permanent signing of George McCartney from Sunderland and the acquisition of James Collins from Aston Villa and the midfield has been added to with the presence of Alou Diarra from Marseille and Mohamed Diame from Wigan. However, their big money signing of the summer has been Modibo Maiga for 6 million euros.

Unlike their fellow Southampton and Reading, West Ham have a manager proven in the top-flight. Not only that, but they have a manager that does well with rather unspectacular teams and/or resources. Bolton and Blackburn didn’t play the most attractive football but they were never likely to get relegated with Allardyce in charge – in fact he took Bolton as high as a sixth place finish.

Yet, the prediction for them is not as ambitious as Alardyce’s own view on the matter: he believes a move into the Olympic Stadium would see them contend with the notion of being as big as Arsenal. Southampton’s Nicola Cortese holds a similar vision for Saints at St. Mary’s. In the immediacy though, a prediction of safety and by some margin is within the realms of realism, without performing with the elegance of Swan Lake.

Prediction: 14th

Written by Jordan Florit for www.maycauseoffence.com/ For more articles visit my website or my Twitter @JordanFlorit





Will second season syndrome strike Norwich?

12 08 2012

2011/12 Campaign (12th in Premier League)

Last season, along with fellow promoted side Swansea, Norwich were held up as a beacon. Supposedly they enlightened the footballing community that you didn’t have to make countless signings when making the giant leap from the Championship to the Premier League in order to cope. Yet, Norwich made 8 – seven of which were permanent. Then, in January, they added another two: Jonny Howson and Ryan Bennett.

Contrary to popular punditry belief Norwich did sign players – 10, in fact – to stay up. But, they signed a particular type: Football League players, with the exception of their loan, Kyle Naughton, and three of their permanent signings. Yet, still, these four players (Daniel Ayala, Kyle Naughton, James Vaughan and Ritchie De Laet) were hardly flush with Premier League experience. Between them, they’d garnered 52 Premier League appearances. Vaughan, formerly of Everton, contributed with 46 of them; Ayala’s 5 appearances in a Liverpool shirt was only bettered by two during last season at Norwich; Naughton’s “appearance” was all of 60 seconds long and Ritchie De Laet’s 3 Manchester United league appearances was only bettered by 3 during his spell at Norwich.

The view that Norwich didn’t have to sign players in bulk to survive isn’t perhaps a footballing untruth, but more of a credit to how smooth integration was.

Paul Lambert continued his successes with Norwich in their first season back in the top flight and with his largely Football League assembled squad he achieved a 12th place finish with the Canaries. It was a position well-earned and only bettered by Swansea, 11th, in regards to the teams competing in their first season since promotion from the Championship. Perhaps surprisingly, it was Norwich’s away games that served them well. On away games alone, Norwich finished 11th, Swansea 16th and QPR rock-bottom.

However, their success, like Swansea’s, looked as if it would come at a large cost as the season drew to a close. Grant Holt had scored 17 goals over the course of the season, following on from his 23 in the Championship last year, 30 in League One the season before and 28 in League Two the campaign before that. It marked an incredible rise from the lowest rung of the Football League t othe highest, im consecutive seasons. Although the apparent gulf in quality between League Two and the Premier League is vast, Holt’s return in front of goal has only dropped 39%. Perhaps more telling was his strike rate. In League Two it was 0.55 goals per game. In the Premier League it was 0.46 gpg. A drop of less than 0.1 in his prolific nature. Rightfully, he was aggrieved to miss out on a Euro 2012 call-up for England. Wrongly, he requested a transfer away from Carrow Road, just as it was looking likely that they’d lose the man that had secured them 12th place.

Preseason

Almost predictably Norwich lost Paul Lambert. Some fans were disillusioned. They felt an affinity to the Scot, who had taken them from the third tier of English football to within 7 goals of the top ten in the Premier League. Lambert, quite clearly, felt differently and chose to take the newly-vacant spot at Aston Villa, following the sacking of Alex McLeish. Of the Norwich fans I know, most feel it is a side step for their former boss: however, that just goes to show how high they’ve climbed since 2009 – their last competitive game without Lambert as boss ended in a 7-1 hammering from Colchester, dished out by yours truly, Paul Lambert.

However, they kept their leading man. In a U-turn far quicker than Carlos Tevez’ but far more intrinsically vital to the respective side’s success next season, Grant Holt signed a new three-year contract, just two months after handing in a transfer request.Holt told the official Norwich website, “I’m really pleased we’ve agreed things and I’ve got the deal which gives me and my family a bit of security.” To translate, he appreciates his pay rise.

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Over the summer Norwich hired Chris Hughton as Paul Lambert’s successor: a man with vast experience in the top-flight as a player and as a coach, but only briefly as first-team manager. His first actions were to continue in a similar manner to his predecessor: acquiring the majority of new signings from outside the Premier League. Three of Norwich’s four new signings have come from outside England’s top-flight.

Joining Hughton on the jump from the Championship to the Premier League is Jacob Butterfield, who joins on a free transfer from Barnsley and Robert Snodgrass from Leeds United. Both of Norwich’s Championship acquisitions are midfielders (Snograss preferring the wing or the role behind the striker), whilst their other two ply their trade in defence: Steven Whittaker joined the Canaries on a free transfer from Rangers and Michael Turner left Sunderland for little under £1.5m for the Norfolk side.

Perhaps indicative from their transfer activity over the summer, Norwich City need no bolstering up-front. However, their only worry over preseason has been just that: an apparent lack of firepower in the the forward ranks, despite a large arsenal. The Canaries carry Steve Morison, James Vaughan, Simeon Jackson and Chris Martin as well as main man Grant Holt, yet over their preseason friendlies a lack of cutting edge has worried Hughton. “An area we’d like to improve on over this pre-season period is our goals tally,” he explained to local radio station, BBC Radio Norfolk, ”We looked very solid as a unit, got into some good areas but it would have been nice to see a couple of goals.” Yet, it doesn’t seem to worry Hughton enough into a rash purchase, “We’ve got a lot of forwards, a lot of strikers…it’s an ongoing process and if we’re able to strengthen, great, but if not, we’ve got a group of lads here that have fared very well at this club.”

Prediction

Chris Hughton’s last season in the Premier League, following promotion from the Championship with Newcastle United, was short-lived but well-managed. In fact eight of Hughton’s most-played players in their promotion campaign from the Championship were integral to the Toon’s fifth place finish in the Premier League last season. His dismissal was unpoluar and perhaps unjust, but in hindsight one cannot argue with the progress Newcastle have made.

Now, having enjoyed a season back in the Championship, leading Birmingham to a fourth-place finish, Hughton gets his second crack at Premier League management.

Last season, Swansea finished 11th, Norwich 12th and QPR 17th. This time round, a prediction of outperforming Swansea, who have, like Norwich, lost their manager, but unlike Norwich, also down a few key players from last season, should bode well with Canaries. However, QPR, financially backed and soundly managed by Mark Hughes, are likely to challenge Norwich for a higher placed finish.

Therefore, this season coming, a prediction of 14th place, in and around newly-promoted pair Southampton and West Ham, seems a fair judgement of things. For Norwich to continue to consolidate as a Premier League side should take priority. Andrew Surman has hinted at further signings, as has Hughton and, personally, if Norwich are to outperform their prediction, these signings are perhaps essential.

Prediction: 14th

Written by Jordan Florit for www.maycauseoffence.com/ For more articles visit my website or my Twitter @JordanFlorit