Will second season syndrome strike Norwich?

12 08 2012

2011/12 Campaign (12th in Premier League)

Last season, along with fellow promoted side Swansea, Norwich were held up as a beacon. Supposedly they enlightened the footballing community that you didn’t have to make countless signings when making the giant leap from the Championship to the Premier League in order to cope. Yet, Norwich made 8 – seven of which were permanent. Then, in January, they added another two: Jonny Howson and Ryan Bennett.

Contrary to popular punditry belief Norwich did sign players – 10, in fact – to stay up. But, they signed a particular type: Football League players, with the exception of their loan, Kyle Naughton, and three of their permanent signings. Yet, still, these four players (Daniel Ayala, Kyle Naughton, James Vaughan and Ritchie De Laet) were hardly flush with Premier League experience. Between them, they’d garnered 52 Premier League appearances. Vaughan, formerly of Everton, contributed with 46 of them; Ayala’s 5 appearances in a Liverpool shirt was only bettered by two during last season at Norwich; Naughton’s “appearance” was all of 60 seconds long and Ritchie De Laet’s 3 Manchester United league appearances was only bettered by 3 during his spell at Norwich.

The view that Norwich didn’t have to sign players in bulk to survive isn’t perhaps a footballing untruth, but more of a credit to how smooth integration was.

Paul Lambert continued his successes with Norwich in their first season back in the top flight and with his largely Football League assembled squad he achieved a 12th place finish with the Canaries. It was a position well-earned and only bettered by Swansea, 11th, in regards to the teams competing in their first season since promotion from the Championship. Perhaps surprisingly, it was Norwich’s away games that served them well. On away games alone, Norwich finished 11th, Swansea 16th and QPR rock-bottom.

However, their success, like Swansea’s, looked as if it would come at a large cost as the season drew to a close. Grant Holt had scored 17 goals over the course of the season, following on from his 23 in the Championship last year, 30 in League One the season before and 28 in League Two the campaign before that. It marked an incredible rise from the lowest rung of the Football League t othe highest, im consecutive seasons. Although the apparent gulf in quality between League Two and the Premier League is vast, Holt’s return in front of goal has only dropped 39%. Perhaps more telling was his strike rate. In League Two it was 0.55 goals per game. In the Premier League it was 0.46 gpg. A drop of less than 0.1 in his prolific nature. Rightfully, he was aggrieved to miss out on a Euro 2012 call-up for England. Wrongly, he requested a transfer away from Carrow Road, just as it was looking likely that they’d lose the man that had secured them 12th place.

Preseason

Almost predictably Norwich lost Paul Lambert. Some fans were disillusioned. They felt an affinity to the Scot, who had taken them from the third tier of English football to within 7 goals of the top ten in the Premier League. Lambert, quite clearly, felt differently and chose to take the newly-vacant spot at Aston Villa, following the sacking of Alex McLeish. Of the Norwich fans I know, most feel it is a side step for their former boss: however, that just goes to show how high they’ve climbed since 2009 – their last competitive game without Lambert as boss ended in a 7-1 hammering from Colchester, dished out by yours truly, Paul Lambert.

However, they kept their leading man. In a U-turn far quicker than Carlos Tevez’ but far more intrinsically vital to the respective side’s success next season, Grant Holt signed a new three-year contract, just two months after handing in a transfer request.Holt told the official Norwich website, “I’m really pleased we’ve agreed things and I’ve got the deal which gives me and my family a bit of security.” To translate, he appreciates his pay rise.

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Over the summer Norwich hired Chris Hughton as Paul Lambert’s successor: a man with vast experience in the top-flight as a player and as a coach, but only briefly as first-team manager. His first actions were to continue in a similar manner to his predecessor: acquiring the majority of new signings from outside the Premier League. Three of Norwich’s four new signings have come from outside England’s top-flight.

Joining Hughton on the jump from the Championship to the Premier League is Jacob Butterfield, who joins on a free transfer from Barnsley and Robert Snodgrass from Leeds United. Both of Norwich’s Championship acquisitions are midfielders (Snograss preferring the wing or the role behind the striker), whilst their other two ply their trade in defence: Steven Whittaker joined the Canaries on a free transfer from Rangers and Michael Turner left Sunderland for little under £1.5m for the Norfolk side.

Perhaps indicative from their transfer activity over the summer, Norwich City need no bolstering up-front. However, their only worry over preseason has been just that: an apparent lack of firepower in the the forward ranks, despite a large arsenal. The Canaries carry Steve Morison, James Vaughan, Simeon Jackson and Chris Martin as well as main man Grant Holt, yet over their preseason friendlies a lack of cutting edge has worried Hughton. “An area we’d like to improve on over this pre-season period is our goals tally,” he explained to local radio station, BBC Radio Norfolk, ”We looked very solid as a unit, got into some good areas but it would have been nice to see a couple of goals.” Yet, it doesn’t seem to worry Hughton enough into a rash purchase, “We’ve got a lot of forwards, a lot of strikers…it’s an ongoing process and if we’re able to strengthen, great, but if not, we’ve got a group of lads here that have fared very well at this club.”

Prediction

Chris Hughton’s last season in the Premier League, following promotion from the Championship with Newcastle United, was short-lived but well-managed. In fact eight of Hughton’s most-played players in their promotion campaign from the Championship were integral to the Toon’s fifth place finish in the Premier League last season. His dismissal was unpoluar and perhaps unjust, but in hindsight one cannot argue with the progress Newcastle have made.

Now, having enjoyed a season back in the Championship, leading Birmingham to a fourth-place finish, Hughton gets his second crack at Premier League management.

Last season, Swansea finished 11th, Norwich 12th and QPR 17th. This time round, a prediction of outperforming Swansea, who have, like Norwich, lost their manager, but unlike Norwich, also down a few key players from last season, should bode well with Canaries. However, QPR, financially backed and soundly managed by Mark Hughes, are likely to challenge Norwich for a higher placed finish.

Therefore, this season coming, a prediction of 14th place, in and around newly-promoted pair Southampton and West Ham, seems a fair judgement of things. For Norwich to continue to consolidate as a Premier League side should take priority. Andrew Surman has hinted at further signings, as has Hughton and, personally, if Norwich are to outperform their prediction, these signings are perhaps essential.

Prediction: 14th

Written by Jordan Florit for www.maycauseoffence.com/ For more articles visit my website or my Twitter @JordanFlorit





Fulham’s top-half credentials hinges on Dempsey Decision

5 08 2012

2011/12 Campaign (9th in the Premier League)

The first season in charge of Fulham for Martin Jol was a hugely successful one, building on the solid foundations Roy Hodgson had built prior to Mark Hughes’ brief stint as manager at Craven Cottage.

Finishing 9th – one position below their 8th-placed finish of the 2010/11 campaign, but with a higher points total – Jol could deem his first season back managing on British soil a success. Their 52 point haul was The Cottagers’ second highest ever tally. The Dutchman quickly made an impression in London – his second spell in England’s capital, having formerly managed Tottenham Hotspur – by splashing out £10.6m on Costa Rican forward Bryan Ruiz from FC Twente.

Although the new arrival, who joined with a strike rate higher than one goal every other game in the Eredivisie, failed to replicate his impressive goal-scoring record for his new side in his inaugural season, he did play his part in Fulham’s top ten finish with numerous assists. With Andrew Johnson and Bobby Zamora both having left Fulham for London rivals QPR, the share of the goals may fall more Ruiz’s way in the forthcoming campaign.

Instead, the goals were divided among three key men over the course of the entire season at Craven Cottage – Bobby Zamora (7), Andrew Johnson (11) and Clint Dempsey (23). Pavel Pogrebnyak did indeed see Fulham over the line in the second-half of the season – but even his input was rather sensationalised. Having scored 5 in his first 3 Premier League games, including a perfect hattrick against Wolves, the Russian striker then only scored 1 in his remaining 11 games for the club. Jol had got the best out of The Pog at minimal cost and was therefore happy to let him go at the end of the season when his demands were high and Mladen Petric and Hugo Rodallega were available on a free.

Fulham, however, were perhaps on the last draws of a cusp of a wave –  their squad was becoming old with an average of 31.2 years of age. Yet their cohesion and organisation, still withstanding from the Hodgson days, was a vital by-product of this aging squad. When Fulham scored first in Premier League games last season, they won 81% of the time and never lost. Furthermore, they’d turned Craven Cottage, a small and imposing stadium, into a fortress, achieving the seventh best home record in the league. Only Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United, Newcastle and Tottenham had a better home record. Or in other words – the top six.

Preseason

In physical terms Fulham’s preseason looks kindly upon the approaching campaign: they’ve so far scored 13 in 5 games, conceding just two, with seven of their goals coming in the past two fixtures: a 3-0 win over Wycombe Wanderers and a 4-0 win against Ligue 1′s OGC Nice.

A man particularly amongst the goals is Mladen Petric – the last of Croatia’s key men in the qualification for and participation in Euro 2008 to make the move to the Premier League, following in the steps of Luka Modric, Niko Kranjcar and Ivan Klasnic. The former Hamburg striker scored one goal in his first two appearances for Fulham – both as a substitute – before scoring 4 in his 3 starts since. Therefore 5 of Fulham’s 13 goals to date in preseason have come through the Croatian striker, who has partnered numerous strikers during preseason, such as Marcello Trotta and Bryan Ruiz, as well as leading the line alone.

Mladen Petric is certainly not Fulham’s only capture of the summer so far – he is perhaps the best though. Also coming in through the doors at Craven Cottage is Colombian international Hugo Rodallega, formerly of Premier League rivals Wigan, German defender Sascha Riether on loan from Koln and George Williams from MK Dons. Rodallega is yet to feature in Fulham’s preseason, whilst Riether started Fulham’s last friendly – the 4-0 win over Nice, and Williams is one for the future, joining Fulham at just 16 years of age.

The busier set of Fulham transfers have been outwards, with seven players leaving adding to the January departure of Bobby Zamora. Danny Murphy and Dickson Etuhu have both joined relegated Blackburn Rovers, Andrew Johnson has teamed up with Zamora at QPR and Bjorn Helge Riise was released, among Fulham’s most poignant outgoings.

Most promising for Fulham fans is Jol’s assessment of the summer post-match at Nice: “We are getting there but there is still three weeks to go and it’s very encouraging,” said the Dutchman, “It was Nice’s final game before they started the league and we looked the better team. But there are always little things that can make us better. We’ve got Trotta coming through, and then next week Rodallega can join us, and Clint Dempsey can join us, and then we’ll be making big steps.”

Prediction

“The transfer window is open until August 31 – its no secret that I would like to play Champions League one day in my career.”

That comment is perhaps more daunting than Jol’s was encouraging, though. It came from the mouth of Fulham’s top goal-scorer last season Clint Dempsey. With the American, Jol’s side has every hope of a top-half finish. Without him, despite him missing much of Fulham’s preseason preparations, Fulham will be hard-pushed to finish in the top ten.

Fulham claim Dempsey missed the Switzerland-based training camp for fitness reasons: “Clint and Hugo Rodallega are both staying in London to work on their fitness at the training ground,” clarified a Fulham spokesperson,  ”Neither were scheduled to feature in the weekend friendly against Nice which is the reason neither travelled.”

Faced with the opposing claim that Dempsey sat out of the camp in order to see through a move elsewhere, Fulham stated that, ”We are not to prepared to comment on any further speculation.”

Simply put, Fulham wont achieve their predicted 10th place finish without Dempsey: their four top scorers from last season would all be gone; four of their five most prolific scorers at the club would have left since January, leaving just Simon Davies as their most prolific scorer, who only featured six times last season; and their two most experienced players would have both departed this summer – Dempsey and Murphy. Their current Player of the Season, who has won the past two awards, has Fulham’s top-half credentials hinging on his decision. If he does go, their impressive home record may be their saving grace.

Prediction: 10th

Written by Jordan Florit for www.maycauseoffence.com/ For more articles visit my website or my Twitter @JordanFlorit