Are Chelsea City’s biggest rivals for the Title?

31 07 2012

2011/12 Campaign (6th in the Premier League)

The last season for Chelsea can be best described as an extended Batman metaphor. Andre Villas-Boas played the part of The Joker – wise and intellectual, no doubt, but with an immaturity and a nonchalant attitude towards the acceptance of any wrong-doing that perhaps led to his own demise – an infant capability to deal with mature situations, possibly. Roman Abramovich was Lucius Fox, providing endless material investment in the hope that his prized interest came good. Roberto Di Matteo featured late on as Alfred Pennyworth – reliable and convenient, but with the knowledge required of Gotham (Chelsea) to make a positive impact. Didier Drogba as the Batman – the expected and long-proven hero, who, despite fading and lurking in purple patches only briefly, gave one last gallant effort to save his side. And, lastly, a humble mention for Fernando Torres who would’ve done well to get cast as Robin – the boy/El Nino, but most importantly the supporting actor.

As it was, Batman did save the day once more and this time it was the bow-out to outdo all that came before it. With speculation rife since Christmas that Didier Drogba would eventually depart Chelsea for Shanghai Shenhua, the Ivorian striker had one last chance to earn Roman Abramovich what he had always intended to win from Day One – The Champions League. The Russian’s love affair with the prestigious award had seen previous managers fall before AVB and the Portuguese’s 3-1 defeat to Italian side Napoli in the last sixteen of the European Cup may have gone some way to seal his fate. Eleven days later he was sacked, not even a year into his three year contract that had cost Chelsea £13.3m in the first place from Porto. His interim replacement, Di Matteo oversaw A last 16 turnaround and a march towards Champions League glory, which was sealed with a penalty shootout win against German side Bayern Munich.

The league finish was not as pretty: bemoaned by journalists as “aging” when they were playing and lost, and “vital missing experienced players” when they weren’t playing but Chelsea lost, The Blues pulled up in sixth come the end of the season. It was their lowest finish since Roman Abramovich purchased the club nearly ten years ago. However, this was deemed AVB’s doing and as a duly reward for winning the Champions League, Roberto Di Matteo was hired permanently as the manager at Stamford Bridge.

Preseason

As aforementioned, for some time now, Chelsea’s side has been labeled “aging” and/or “experienced,” depending on the bias needed. Last season it was more the former than the latter. Chelsea’s average age was 28.9-years old. Their youngest regular was 22 year old Daniel Sturridge, but, more often than not, six of their starting line-up were the wrong side of 30.

In practice, only three sides had an older average age: Everton (30 years old), Fulham (31.5) and QPR (29.5). However, all five teams above Chelsea had significantly lower average ages. Premier League winners Manchester City had an average age of just 26.6, only beaten by Newcastle (26.4) & Arsenal (26.1.) It seemed to compete at the top an injection of youth was urgently needed.

Much of the youth at Arsenal has been bought in at a young age, sometimes waiting years for them to breakthrough, and often cheaply. Manchester United had, by the end of the season, four academy produced players in their starting line-up and a further five that joined the club before their 20th birthday. Manchester City are Chelsea’s financial Achilles heel, if Arsenal and United (or more specifically Wenger and Ferguson) are their youth development weakness, when it comes to investment in the future.

From 2004 to 2010, Chelsea’s wage expenditure accounted for 14% of the Premier League’s total expenditure on wages (think that the average expenditure per club would be circa 5%). Manchester City’s, as was United’s, was closer to 10%. Therefore, considering wage expenditure has the most influential effect on final league position, it’s no surprise Chelsea won the Premier League the most times during this period. It is the largest share of total league wage expenditure of any club across Europe in the past 37 years.

However, now the momentum has swung: for seven years Chelsea could outspend anyone in the Premier League – and did – yet now Manchester City are outspending them and they possess the highest wage bill in the Premier League. Again, it is no surprise they are Champions.

Yet, capitalising on their Champions League success, Chelsea are striking first theis summer and are striking in the right direction, purchasing players that average an age of 20.75 years old: Thorgen Hazard (19), Oscar (20), Eden Hazard (20) & Marko Marin (23). Furthermore, all four signings go straight to the heart of the problem – the sometimes degenerate Chelsea midfield. Considering they last year purchased Romelu Lukaku (19), Thibaut Courtois (20), Juan Manuel Mata (24) and Kevin De Bruyne (21), last year’s aging Chelsea could very quickly become this year’s youthful Chelsea. Stealing Hazard from under the noses of Manchester City may further signal at another twist in the power struggle at the top of the Premier League and between the two mega-rich oil oligarchies and 18 year old Lucas Piazon may just prove to be another surprise package next season, featuring in three of Chelsea’s four preseason games to date, scoring one in the process.

With Wigan striker Victor Moses, Shakhtar Donestk midfielder Willian and Marseille right-back Cesar Azpilicueta all strongly linked with a move to Stamford Bridge too, even if they don’t move to London, it signifies that Chelsea are still not content, despite a £65m summer spending spree.

Their preseason fixtures to date have been of a mixed outcome. Having won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 (in that order), momentum is hardly being gathered for the start of the new season. However, with Oscar and Juan Manuel Mata on Olympic duty anyway, alongside Oriel Romeu, Daniel Sturridge and Ryan Bertrand, expect most of the valuable preseason preparations to occur between now and August 18th.

Prediction

With signings unveiled and more expected, Chelsea are clearly going about the transition project that Andre Villas Boas so openly talked about and so quickly used to justify his actions and failures. Providing it is more suitably handled than last season – more Sir Alex Ferguson like than AVB, if you wish – a serious title challenge can be mounted.

With their ever-present source of goals now plying his trade in China, heads will turn to a new man to lead the Chelsea line. An impressive, if still somewhat sparse, tournament showing from Fernando Torres, which saw him collect the Golden Boot for Euro 2012 as his nation won it back-to-back, will have done wonders for not only the striker’s confidence but the people who matter’s belief in him, too. Daniel Sturridge has previously expressed his desire to play a more central role for Chelsea, currently operating on the wings of The Blues’s front three and with new signing Oscar stating he will play anywhere to get a game, Di Matteo will certainly benefit from a flush of choices in the forward department, if not fluidity at least.

If one more signing had to be made by Chelsea a right-back would be the priority. Whilst John Terry, David Luiz, Gary Cahill and Branislav Ivanovic are all superb world-class centre-backs, the former most is, although by no means old at 31, not the iconic world beater he once was and the latter most is by far a better player in the centre than he is at right-back and Jose Bosingwa was simply not title-winning material for the right-back slot and was thus released. With Ashley Cole still one of football’s finest left-backs, it really does leave just the right-back position to be addressed. If it can be, a fourth title in ten years is a very real possibility.

Prediction: 1st.

Written by Jordan Florit for www.maycauseoffence.com/ For more articles visit my website or my Twitter @JordanFlorit 





2012/13 Build-Up – The Barclays Premier League: Aston Villa

30 07 2012

2011/12 Campaign (16th in the Premier League)

Aston Villa’s season started amid controversy: they hired their arch-rival’s manager, Alex McLeish, who, whilst winning the Carling Cup with Birmingham thus securing Europa League football for the 2011/12 season at St. Andrews, ran the Midlands side down the table and into the Championship. However, The Blues were not too keen to lose their Scottish manager and demanded that the aptly-named Villans paid off the remaining two years of his contract, amounting to £5m. It turned out to be a costly appointment.

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Perhaps the Carling Cup had hidden it, but Alex McLeish hadn’t adjusted his style of play appropriately to achieve sustainable success in the Premier League and with Aston Villa last season the point was reinforced. Having been relegated with Birmingham in 2008, McLeish achieved an instant return to the Premier League and recorded an excellent league position of ninth in their return season in the top flight. However, second season syndrome was apparent and relegation followed. Although McLeish joined Aston Villa with a win percentage of 36.9%, simply put, Aston Villa chiefs failed to notice his form was on the turn. In the season Birmingham were relegated his win percentage had slipped to just 21%.

Of his move across Birmingham to Villa Park, Villa’s chief executive stated that, “unquestionably, Alex meets the criteria we set out at the beginning of our search which was based on proven Premier League experience, leadership, a hardworking ethic and, most importantly, a shared vision for Aston Villa.” However, this “proven Premier League experience” amounted to a win percentage of just 27.5 from his two full seasons in charge at St. Andrews. Certain sections of the Villa faithful were rightly dubious, as McLeish himself alluded to, “I know that some of our fans have voiced concerns and I can understand why.” It wasn’t just his crossing of the footballing border that divided England’s second city and almost predictably Aston Villa finished 16th – their lowest finish since the 2005/06 campaign.

Preseason

Much of Aston Villa’s preseason has unsurprisingly focused on two things: appointing the right manager for the long-term, as his eventual hiring would make him Villa’s fourth manager in the space of two years (compare this to the average lifespan of an English Football League manager – 2 years); and, secondly, addressing a defensive fragility that was either masked by McLeish’s unadventurous football or created by it.

For the O’Neill fans that undoubtedly remain in the Villa camp, it may well be the latter, considering the former Aston Villa boss has just signed Carlos Cuellar on a free transfer following his release from Villa Park, just one season after his now former employers had agreed a deal to sell him to Rangers. It was the Northern Irish manager who brought the Spaniard defender to the Premier League in 2008 for just under £8m. It may well be the same man to benefit from the same signing four years later at £7.8m less.

The defence, which was most commonly comprising of Stephen Warnock (38 appearances), James Collins (34 apps), Richard Dunne (32 apps) and Alan Hutton (34 apps), had consistency, as the stats show. However, it was often left exposed: firstly, by a deep-lying midfield that didn’t lack, but was restricted in, creative output; and, secondly, Shay Given.

A few seasons ago the Irish #1 was among the best – recently he has slumped and this might be an area Paul Lambert wishes to address, either with Brad Guzan pushing for the jersey or a new face providing a third man to fight for the starting spot. Take this data, for example:

The stats at the midway point last season:

Shay Given: 1,208 minutes; 18 goals conceded; 2 from outside the box; 43 saves; 4 clean sheets; 70.49% shots to save ratio; 67 minutes per goal conceded.

Brad Guzan: 592 minutes; 8 goals conceded; 0 from outside the box; 20 saves; 1 clean sheet; 71.43% shots to save ratio; 74 minutes per goal conceded.

At that point last season only four ‘keepers had avoided conceding from outside the box: not only was Guzan one of them, but he was the one with the most minutes to his name too. Pair this with his shots to saves ratio tippling Given’s and his 7 minutes more on average of no concession and a case can be made for the transition in the #1 jersey. As it stands, Brad Guzan has started in both of Aston Villa’s preseason friendlies stateside and The Sun reported in early July that Given was no longer Villa’s first-choice shot-stopper.

This neatly ties in with the man calling the shots as a change transmits across the Aston Villa camp – new manager Paul Lambert. Having beaten Villa 2-0 with his promoted Norwich side on the final day of the season, Lambert chose to switch alliances between the two sides, in a move reminiscent of when he left Colchester for Norwich, having disposed of the latter in a 7-1 mauling. Villa will be hoping Lambert continues to repeat history as Norwich then returned the favour later that season by hammering his former club 5-0.

Paul Lambert is Aston Villa’s fourth manager in the space of two years and the second Scot on the trot. Yet, unlike McLeish, this Scottish-born ex-player is a prime example of the success of the influence of Sir Alex Ferguson on the influx of Scottish managers into the Premier League. The great Scot himself wasn’t the first – Jock Stein, Kenny Dalglish, Matt Busby and Bill Shankly all influenced British football to exert a stereotypical view that Scottish managers were powerful and vociferous speakers with the mind of a sharp tactician.

Paul Lambert isn’t just a tactically sound choice, though: at Norwich he proved himself a shrewd force in the transfer market, signing ten players – two of which didn’t come until January – with just one coming in on a permanent deal from a team that was then playing their football above the Championship. Six of the ten signings came from teams in the Championship and League One. A finish of 12th place went to prove there were gems outside the Premier League capable of the step up – and at a seeming ease. More importantly, Lambert proved he was the man that could identify them and purchase them.

So far this window, £8.25m has been spent on new recruits at Villa Park: Matthew Lowton has made the step-up from League One to the Premier League for a fee of £2.95m – and Villa fans will be hoping he can emulate the success of Lambert’s last League One signing, Anthony Pilkington; Australian forward Brett Holman on a free transfer from AZ Alkmaar; Moroccan midfielder Karim El Ahmadi from Feyenoord for £2.1m; and Euro 2012 Netherlands defender Ron Vlaar from Feyenoord at the cost of £3.1m.

Prediction

With the signings of Ron Vlaar and Matthew Lowton, Paul Lambert has quickly and efficiently highlighted a worrying ineptitude of the McLeish regime and has brought in these two faces to see about forging the solution to the pressing issue at hand. With Guzan likely to grasp the #1 spot, three changes – at least – may be seen at the back. Drastic times – the worst win ratio ever recorded by an Aston Villa manager – calls for drastic measures – replacing the old guard in the space of a preseason.

Furthermore, since Ashley Young departed Villa Park for Manchester United and Stewart Downing for Liverpool, much of Villa’s creativity has had to come from one man – Charles N’Zogbia. Marc Albrighton also carried a threat, but his nor N’Zogbia’s partnership with Agbonlahor could match their predecessor’s. In Young’s final season at Villa he contributed with 11 assists and Downing added 9: last season, not a single Villa player surpassed five. In Brett Holman, a 28-year old winger from AZ, who last season made 10 assists in 25 appearances, Lambert has addressed this concern and the new signing’s praise for fellow signing Karim El Ahmadi, a defensive midfielder, points towards a more balanced Villa midfield next season. Expect the Moroccan to sit deep to allow the two wingers (from Albrighton, N’Zogbia, Holman and perhaps Agbonlahor) to support the lead striker (Bent.)

With all of this in mind and Paul Lambert’s so far faultless three previous seasons, a comparatively strong season should be expected from Aston Villa. Although heights such as top eight finishes, which were a regular occurrence under Martin O’Neill are perhaps too optimistic, a mid-table finish would satisfy most, given that the top six or seven sides of the Premier League continue to pull away.

Prediction: 12th

Written by Jordan Florit for www.maycauseoffence.com/ For more articles visit my website or my Twitter @JordanFlorit